Invest for Results

If you invest the way Cake Investment Group suggests you too may see similar results (there are no guarantees).  All it takes is 15 minutes a month and patience and discipline to invest this way

Many try to invest to attain these types of results but fail to stay the course and see their plan to invest derail.

 

Portfolio Total Return CAGR Sharp Ratio Max Drawdown
Cake 406% 9.6% 0.62 -21.5%
BNCH 60/40 262.3% 7.6% 0.52 -35.4%
VTI 481.7% 10.5% 0.50 -55.45%
Tax Wash Portfolio (SPY) 362.5% 9.1% 0.58 -20.8%
Year Cake Return BNCH Return Cake Max Drawdown BNCH Max Drawdown
2020 11.8% 6.4% -12.6% -18.9%
2019 7.5% 19.0% -10.5% -2.9%
2018 -6.9% -5.2% -21.4% -11.1%
2017 21.2% 14.5% -2.7% -1.4%
2016 10.2% 4.8% -5.9% -5.0%
2015 -8.2% 0.7% -12.1% -8.0%
2014 12.5% 5.4% -7.6% -4.7%
2013 33.5% 13.0% -5.7% -6.7%
2012 9.6% 12.3% -10.1% -5.7%
2011 -3.6% 2.9% -18.5% -9.7%
2010 0.5% 12.3% -19.5% -8.2%
2009 22.2% 13.7% -6.2% -18.7%
2008 5.2% -19.5% -2.2% -31.0%
2007 5.4% 8.9% -10.1% -5.2%
2006 15.7% 13.2% -8.5% -6.9%
2005 6.3% 7.0% -7.0% -3.9%
2004 9.9% 11.2% -6.9% -6.8%
2003 26.3% 20.2% -4.2% -7.3%

Select Recession Indicator Readings

Month/Year Recession Indicator Reading Start of Next Recession
March 1999 11.67% March 2001
March 2000 43.06% March 2001
December 2000 74.17% March 2001
March 2001 95.83% March 2001
March 2004 24.72% December 2007
March 2005 11.94% December 2007
March 2006 33.89% December 2007
September 2007 83.06% December 2007
March 2010 11.11% ?
March 2011 8.33% ?
March 2014 20% ?
March 2015 18.89% ?
March 2016 17.78% ?
March 2018 30% ?
March 2020 90.27% February 2020

Select Bubble Barometer Readings

Month/Year Bubble Barometer Reading S & P 500
March 1995 37.46 500.71
March 1997 91.43 757.12
March 1999 244.90 1286.37
March 2000 301.08 1498.58
December 2000 180.55 1320.28
March 2002 189.85 912.95
March 2004 70.55 1126.21
March 2006 46.23 1294.87
October 2006 29.75 1335.85
March 2007 36.89 1420.86
October 2007 37.43 1526.75
March 2008 17.89 1322.70
December 2008 109.41 903.25
December 2009 23 115.10
March 2011 21.59 1325.83
March 2015 189.42 2067.89
March 2016 186.20 2059.74
March 2017 214.35 2362.72
March 2018 228.65 2640.87
March 2019 224.90 2834.4
January 2020 258.74 3225.52

DISCLOSURES

Back Testing

All back testing was done with etfreplay.com, using their back-testing function.  The proprietary parameters of the Cake Trend Identification Line were set up to calculate the month end close of the various securities and then taking the appropriate action on the first trading day of the next month. 

Trading Framework

The trading framework discussed in this presentation is hypothetical and does not represent the investment performance or the actual accounts of any investors or any mutual funds. The securities in the hypothetical portfolios were selected with the full benefit of hindsight, after their performance over the period shown was known. The results achieved in our simulations do not guarantee future investment results.
The model performance information in this presentation is based on the back-tested performance of hypothetical investments over the time periods indicated. “Back-testing” is a process of objectively simulating historical investment returns by applying a set of rules for buying and selling securities, and other assets, backward in time, testing those rules, and hypothetically investing in the securities and other assets that are chosen. Back-testing is designed to allow investors to understand and evaluate certain strategies by seeing how they would have performed hypothetically during certain time periods.

Performance Possibilities

It is possible that the markets will perform better or worse than shown in the projections; that the actual results of an investor who invests in the manner these projections suggest will be better or worse than the projections; and that an investor may lose money by investing in the manner the projections suggest.

Information Certification

Although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. While back-testing results reflect rigorous application of the investment strategy selected, back-tested results have certain limitations and should not be considered indicative of future results. In particular, they do not reflect actual trading in an account, so there is no guarantee that an actual account would have achieved these results shown. Back-tested results also assume that asset allocations would not have changed over time and in response to market conditions, which might have occurred if an actual account had been managed during the time period shown. 

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